CA Redistricting Question

OFF THE WIRE
Doug....
Thanks for setting a fine example for all the newbies...and for such a concise explanation of things...
Folks...THIS is the kind of hard work and dedication that makes things happen.
And how much does this guy get paid? NADA. He gets paid in pride. Though they say "The price of liberty is eternal vigilance"....it sure would be a lot easier to be in the business of freedom if we could tap into some of that special interest money.
The only time this guy sits on his butt is when he's riding......often - carrying campaign signs.
Doug...Thanks for all your hard work...fighting for MY "right" to ride....
~splatt

PS: Have you submitted a DNA sample to the cloning program, yet?

On Tue, Sep 27, 2011 at 12:53 AM, Douglas Findlay <ride2repeal@gmail.com> wrote:
Splatt

Actually I'm already done with the task I was asking about. A very bright person sent me a list showing which legislators will be in the new districts. Now the new maps have been color-coded accordingly, and I shared them with the Repeal Machine subscribers.

It came as no surprise that some districts will have open seats, and that other districts will be head-to-head races between incumbents. Some previously safe incumbents will now find themselves in the minority party of their own district, so the odds are good that they'll be tossed out in 2012. Anyway, I filled in the blanks with districts who have safe incumbents (RED and GRN).

The remaining seats are in contested districts. Most are "owned" by one party or the other, with only a handful of evenly matched "swing" districts. So for the one-party districts, the only question will be who wins the dominant party's nomination. By the time the general election rolls around, it will be little more than a coronation for the anointed nominee.

I'm not surprised that the Republicans are pissed. While it originally seemed like a good idea to take the redistricting process away from the Democrat-controlled legislature, the voters of California have become more aligned with the Democratic party over the past decade. It is what it is. Then you have to consider the voting rights act, which (like it or not) gives majority status to minority communities.

Regarding challenges to the Redistricting Commission, I don't see much chance of it being overturned. Now there may be a little tinkering with district lines here and there, but for the most part I think it will proceed as-is. That video is a sad-but-true commentary on how it ended up, and I don't doubt anything Dr. Ward said ... including his refusal to participate in challenging it.

But even if it gets challenged, and even if it gets overturned, and the whole map gets redrawn from scratch (or gets frozen), my task is still exactly the same ... find out where the most competitive races will be. Redistricting is just a re-shuffling of the deck ... but we have an ace up our sleeves - campaign volunteers working in close races.

There will be two phases to our 2012 campaign efforts:

The first phase is leading up to the primary races in the spring, focusing on the most competitive nominations in one-party districts. And it looks like there will be plenty to choose from, especially when you factor in all the termed-out legislators. This is the most urgent task, since the parties are already making deals on who gets to run in which district.

The second phase will be the leading up to the general elections in November. That's when we'll be looking closely at the swing districts. There should be very few to choose from, which allows us to concentrate our campaign volunteers into a couple of Bay Area and SoCal districts.

All we need to do is win a couple of primaries, and win a couple of swing districts. Four wins is a reasonable goal. Each district we win gets us that much closer to getting our freedom back. That's progress. All we have to do is earn it.

Douglas
The Republicans forced this issue...and now they're not too happy with the results.

the redistricting website has a somewhat authoritarian sound to it: http://wedrawthelines.ca.gov/
rather pompous....how would you like it if cops adapted that style? welockyouup.ca.gov

The California Citizens Redistricting Commission has adopted final district maps for Congressional, State Assembly, State Senate and Board of Equalization districts.
Assembly, Senate, Congressional and Board of Equalization Final Maps: http://wedrawthelines.ca.gov/maps-final-drafts.html

LA Times: California's citizen commission final district maps: Find out what's changed where you live.

where will MY current representatives end up? my understanding is...the politician serving now will only be able to run in a new district in which they live - when their current district terms out.
after an HOUR+ of researching how that will affect the odds and evens (re-elections) of the state senate in 2012...haven't found a CLUE.
Senators are limited to serving two four-year terms, which are staggered so that half the membership is elected every two years. The Senators representing the odd-numbered districts are elected in years evenly divisible by four. The senators from the even-numbered districts are elected in the intervening even-numbered years.
the league of women voters sez: "Incumbents’ residences may not be considered." (in the redistricting procedure)

"A few candidates have hedged their bets by signing up in two places at once, including Assemblyman Stephen Knight (R-Palmdale), who filed intention statements in both his own district and the one in the state Senate recently won by fellow Republican Sharon Runner of neighboring Lancaster. He can pivot later to whichever ends up the better fit for him." http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/11/local/la-me-early-candidates-20110411

so we'd need their home addresses to figure it all out...regardless...i really don't think it's goin' anywhere...it's gonna end up in the courts.
the commission itself doesn't really know what will happen when the lawsuits begin...which leads some to believe the districts would be FROZEN.

for me...
US Rep 45 will become the 36th
State Assembly 64 will become the 71 or the 42 (maps too small to tell)
State Senate 37 will become 23 or 28 (maps too small to tell)
I invite anyone to find dirt on Republicans, but I keep reading how Democrats used a term called "Communities of Interest" to....well...uh...GERRYMANDER. haha
and then another interesting term..."majority-minority" keeps turning up...something to do with the voters rights act.
Dr. Gabino Aguirre's secret political past: http://www.calwatchdog.com/2011/07/15/redistricting-commissioner-aguirres-secret-political-past/ I'd mention his party of preference...but many of you would blow a gasket.

Republicans who voted "for" the maps....say they were hoodwinked...but they also say they received virtually NO support from their own party to help them comprehend what was actually happening.

9/1/11 HuffPo: California's Unsound Redistricting Process

It's likely to end up in the supreme court's hands...much like everything else, these days....
9/15/11  Supreme Court Asked To Block Unconstitutional Senate Redistricting Maps: http://fairdistricts2012.com/2011/09/supreme-court-asked-to-block-unconstitutional-senate-redistricting-maps/

"certified maps - fundamentally flawed"...Commisioner Ward statement: http://youtu.be/w8tLvL--h-4

SIGN THE PETITION FOR THE REFERENDUM
http://fairdistricts2012.com/
Referendum Hits 200,000 Signature Mark
Our signature drive passed the 200,000 count this week – about a week ahead of projections. We have until November 13 to collect the 504,760 signatures needed to qualify the referendum and stop the Commission’s Senate plan from taking effect.  With signatures being collected faster than expected and with a strong volunteer and direct mail effort underway, FAIR is recalculating weekly signature projections for October and early November. The good news is that we will be able to finish the signature drive sooner than planned if the direct mail and volunteer signatures continue to outpace projections.

I put in a request to get me some of them petitions...i hear they're payin' good money for signatures!!!!
Maybe YOUR local could make some cash gettin' signatures??
Hey..if ACORN can do it.....

~splatt
Official ABATE Has-Been Society Member
2011, 2010. 2009
Membership # US00002