Cyril Huze’s 10 Motorcycle Predictions For 2013
Published by
Here’s the thing about predictions: they are always fun to make (and to read)
and no one ever remembers a year later what they were. So there is basically no
reason not to whip out the crystal ball and start forecasting. That you agree or
not, I hope that my 2013 predictions will give you plenty to chew on. Ready to
send me flames (please, with your real name & email) or to support my
convictions? Now is your time to express your opinion with rationales.
Prediction 1. Harley-Davidson Again The World’s Most Admired
Motorcycle Company. Caught in the economic downturn of 2008 with an
aging clientele and no new models in the pipeline to attract younger customers,
many bikers, even employees and top executives thought that the company would
die in the next 10 years. New Harley Chairman and CEO Keith Wandell started a
massive 5-year restructuring plan including shuttering plants, modernizing
facilities, doing painful major job cuts, ending its Buell sport motorcycle
brand and selling its Italian brand motorcycle subsidiary. Today, 4 years into
the plan, Harley-Davidson has efficient operations, has been able to shorten its
new products cycle to adjust to new motorcycle trends, is leading all
manufacturers in terms of percentage of female and young buyers and is in
extremely good position in developing and emerging countries to take advantage
of a fast growing middle class. In the US and Europe where sales growth is
probably limited to about 3% per year, budget crisis may dent some quarter
results, but Harley-Davidson is re-emerging in 2013 as one of the strongest and
most profitable motorcycle companies in the world. I have no doubt that Keith
Wandell draconian restructuring strategy will soon become a business school case
study. Winners: all bikers, independent shops and after-market part vendors.
Losers: mass produced factory customs.
Prediction 2. The New Indian Motorcycle Is Going To Be The Biggest
Media Story Of The Year And Maybe Of The Years After… The rebirth of
this iconic brand, probably at the time of Sturgis Bike Week, may be history in
the making. Not a professional or biker who doesn’t wish success to Polaris, but
many still fear some disappointment regarding the new bike design, performance
and price. I expect a premium new model because Indian is a premium brand. But
price will be much lower than the King’s Mountain era Chief model. None of the
components will be borrowed from Victory. For the 1st time in its history,
Polaris (like Harley-Davidson always did so well) will certainly use Indian’s
rich history to gain momentum leading to the launch. It is easy to predict that
Polaris marketing and advertising strategies will leverage the launch using the
brand itself, the connection between Indian riders, the apparel and the
accessories. To create a massive buzz, I predict that Polaris will only use
digital platforms, the only media (versus print magazines) where people have an
instant voice, can share, spread the word, and where Indian can engage directly
and authentically with potential customers. Knowing that a few weeks ago during
the IMS Long Beach Show Indian released the sound of the new engine, I also
predict that the company will continue to feed the buzz with a teaser campaign,
releasing on a regular basis, via digital news websites like this one and social
networks, pictures of close-up details of chassis, engine, war bonnet, etc
until full new model release in August. Winners: the motorcycle industry, in
2014 custom builders and new Indian custom after-market part vendors. Losers:
Marginally Harley-Davidson (many Harley buyers tell me they postpone a new bike
purchase until the Indian launch), but mainly Triumph & Norton the year
these 2 brands are trying to make a big push on the US market.
Prediction 3. Polaris Efforts Will Focus On Touring Victory
Models, Not On Cruisers. Victory success and good reputation is getting
more and more concentrated on its line of tourers, great competitors of those
offered by Harley-Davidson. In a year where Polaris dedicates most of the
motorcycles marketing division’s efforts on the re-birth of Indian it would be
very surprising if the company would launch a brand new cruiser. To widen its
customers base Polaris would have more interest in diversifying its touring line
up, for example with a true convertible for those looking for riding comfort but
rarely doing long range trips. Winners: customizers specializing in touring
bikes, all touring accessory vendors.
Prediction 4. The Fastest Growing Segment Of The Custom Motorcycle
Industry Will Be After-Market Parts For the Harley-Davidson Sportster
Model. New young bikers, male or female, discover it to become their
first motorcycle, Experienced middle age riders rediscover it as the machine who
gave them so much pleasure when they were younger. The Harley Sportster’s appeal
is almost universal among those who don’t need a touring bike. Easy to own, new
or used. Fun to ride with. Both balanced and responsive with outstanding
maneuverability. An urban brawler that young riders love for its dripping
attitude and that older bikers love for being reminiscent of the gritty dirt
tracks and drag strips of the 1950s. Whatever you want to do with it, the XL is
an easy starting point for customization. Make it look menacing, prepare it
ready for racing the streets or the strips, make it pretty for boulevard
cruising, its customization possibilities are endless. Combination of wheel
size, balloon tires, change of geometry with short front ends and generous rear
suspension via long shocks under a high tail section, it can be a Bobber, a Cafe
Racer, a cruiser and everything between. Recently, I was reminded by a
professional of the industry that during the last 5 years about half a million
Sportsters have changed hands, NOT including new bike sales!. Each change of
ownership implies a few new parts bought… There is an incredible potential of
new custom part offerings to please the Sportster riders, much more than for the
touring bikes market sef\gment. Winners: manufacturers of rear shocks, body
kits, fenders, gas tanks, front ends, clip bars, gauges, performance kits, etc.
Backyard builders and old school garages.
Prediction 5. Bike Flipping Is Going To Be The New Rage For Garage
Builders And small Shops. Spend time in a Swap Meet, search eBay, your
local motorcycles trader magazine, barns, etc. Find a basket case, a rusted gem
or part of it for a couple of thousand dollars or less. Pick the ones easy to
restore or customize. All brands welcome.. The objective is NOT to put the bike
in its original manufacturing state, but to offer a buyer a fun bike to ride for
a very reasonable price (a 1st used car price). Time is the essence. Flip the
reborn bike as fast as possible. Create a small local riding club, meet new
friends, new buyers, new leads to new sleeping gems. Repeat. Make money. Start a
business. In 2013, Discovery may start a new TV show series based on the above
storyline. If it’s the case, expect an explosion of bike flippers all over the
country.
Prediction 6. New Bagger Trend: A Leaner Bagger With No Bling, No Hallucinogen Paint And No Professional DJ Sound System Equipment. “Baby boomers switch from riding a Cruiser or Chopper to a Bagger. So, let’s do for them what we did on their bikes in the 90′s…” It’s the way many custom builders went overboard, fitting Baggers will all sort of unjustified panels and extensions (I have seen drawers!?!) with no other purpose that showing that you can fabricate steel or fiberglass, or to attach more bling and paint more murals than your competitors at the Baggers Bike Show. It’s the way, especially during these last 2 years, that beautiful Baggers turned into giant disproportionate monsters. The good thing is that such a spectacle for which was created a couple of Bagger magazines and bike shows, is going to end. The backlash is coming in the form of good custom builders taking their revenge in customizing Baggers to look better, not worse, and touring better than out of the factory. I predict that they will be chopped out, thinner, offering as much comfort and good riding position, but with superb flowing lines not interrupted by “easter eggs” or “back from the grave” paint jobs.
Prediction 7. The Death Of The Giant 30″ Bagger Front
Wheel. Size 23″, then 26″, then 30″. What’s next? Evidently, I embrace
the art of custom motorcycles, even some of its excesses because they may help
progress, but no more when in direct conflict with the main purpose of a bike,
riding safely. True that a Bagger appearance may be enhanced by a taller front
wheel. But when is tall too tall? Answer may be subjective on the aesthetic
point of view. But not on the safety issue when the Bagger can’t no more
function like a touring motorcycle, when the installation of a 30″ wheels
implies a modification of the frame structure (and if not well done, integrity)
In the past, excessive Chopper bike frame raking without respect of a safe trail
had its consequences. Then outrageous rear tire size (width) has shown many (who
should have known better) that a motorcycle is not and doesn’t work like a
monster truck. 21″ or 23″ size front wheel on a Bagger may remain. I doubt about
the 26″, 30″ and above (?), except if you just want to look at your piece of art
and maybe win plastic trophies over 30″ tall in bike shows.
Prediction 8. Custom Bike Building Getting Less And Less Segmented
Between American & Metric Bikes. “Fusionary” Style Getting Bigger.
By economic necessity many Custom Builders who specialized in American
motorcycles have already crossed over, applying their skills to other foreign
& exotic brands. In addition, custom bike building is no more limited to
either building from the ground up or customizing factory bikes. Also for budget
reasons custom bike building now starts from cheap donor bikes of all origins
and age, the project being completed with parts belonging to different
motorcycle brands for a final appearance always fresh and unique. Mixing and
matching parts that never met before on the same motorcycle is probably the most
interesting development in the custom motorcycle industry. I call this style
“Fusionary” because it requires from the builder the ability to make stranger
parts fusion harmoniously (work together) and to be able to envision well in
advance what the aesthetic result will be. Thank the new or next generation of
Custom Builders for this trend born from necessity. “Fusionary” building is
going to expand and find acceptance from buyers.
Prediction 9. Harley-Davidson US Dealer Network Will Shrink Again
By 10%. Indian Will Have A Separate Dealers Network. Nobody in the
motorcycle industry expects heavy cruiser sales to grow more than 3% per year
during the next 5 years. Dealers with more than one store have reassessed their
needs in terms of business sales per square footage and will continue to close
inefficient locations. Corporate Harley will continue to monitor its dealers
implantation and will turn down new openings in non-key markets and in key
markets with already strong dealers. Indian will have a separate dealer network
– not all Polaris dealers -although it will probably include Victory Motorcycle
dealers in key markets and the few remaining Indian dealers of the “Kings
Mountain” era.
Prediction 10. Black Will Remain The Color Of Choice, But Only For
Accessories. Bright paint Colors Are Back With Shy Return Of Chrome
Parts. Too many all blacked out custom motorcycles. Hard metal flake
colors, Japanese style graphics and simple 2-tone paint jobs against black
anodized or powder coated parts will dominate the 2013 custom scene. Overused
retro grey, green and brown machine colors are out. Candy-apple colors and
gleaming chrome will be preferred by most female riders.
Prediction 1. Harley-Davidson Again The World’s Most Admired
Motorcycle Company. Caught in the economic downturn of 2008 with an
aging clientele and no new models in the pipeline to attract younger customers,
many bikers, even employees and top executives thought that the company would
die in the next 10 years. New Harley Chairman and CEO Keith Wandell started a
massive 5-year restructuring plan including shuttering plants, modernizing
facilities, doing painful major job cuts, ending its Buell sport motorcycle
brand and selling its Italian brand motorcycle subsidiary. Today, 4 years into
the plan, Harley-Davidson has efficient operations, has been able to shorten its
new products cycle to adjust to new motorcycle trends, is leading all
manufacturers in terms of percentage of female and young buyers and is in
extremely good position in developing and emerging countries to take advantage
of a fast growing middle class. In the US and Europe where sales growth is
probably limited to about 3% per year, budget crisis may dent some quarter
results, but Harley-Davidson is re-emerging in 2013 as one of the strongest and
most profitable motorcycle companies in the world. I have no doubt that Keith
Wandell draconian restructuring strategy will soon become a business school case
study. Winners: all bikers, independent shops and after-market part vendors.
Losers: mass produced factory customs.
Prediction 2. The New Indian Motorcycle Is Going To Be The Biggest
Media Story Of The Year And Maybe Of The Years After… The rebirth of
this iconic brand, probably at the time of Sturgis Bike Week, may be history in
the making. Not a professional or biker who doesn’t wish success to Polaris, but
many still fear some disappointment regarding the new bike design, performance
and price. I expect a premium new model because Indian is a premium brand. But
price will be much lower than the King’s Mountain era Chief model. None of the
components will be borrowed from Victory. For the 1st time in its history,
Polaris (like Harley-Davidson always did so well) will certainly use Indian’s
rich history to gain momentum leading to the launch. It is easy to predict that
Polaris marketing and advertising strategies will leverage the launch using the
brand itself, the connection between Indian riders, the apparel and the
accessories. To create a massive buzz, I predict that Polaris will only use
digital platforms, the only media (versus print magazines) where people have an
instant voice, can share, spread the word, and where Indian can engage directly
and authentically with potential customers. Knowing that a few weeks ago during
the IMS Long Beach Show Indian released the sound of the new engine, I also
predict that the company will continue to feed the buzz with a teaser campaign,
releasing on a regular basis, via digital news websites like this one and social
networks, pictures of close-up details of chassis, engine, war bonnet, etc
until full new model release in August. Winners: the motorcycle industry, in
2014 custom builders and new Indian custom after-market part vendors. Losers:
Marginally Harley-Davidson (many Harley buyers tell me they postpone a new bike
purchase until the Indian launch), but mainly Triumph & Norton the year
these 2 brands are trying to make a big push on the US market.
Prediction 3. Polaris Efforts Will Focus On Touring Victory
Models, Not On Cruisers. Victory success and good reputation is getting
more and more concentrated on its line of tourers, great competitors of those
offered by Harley-Davidson. In a year where Polaris dedicates most of the
motorcycles marketing division’s efforts on the re-birth of Indian it would be
very surprising if the company would launch a brand new cruiser. To widen its
customers base Polaris would have more interest in diversifying its touring line
up, for example with a true convertible for those looking for riding comfort but
rarely doing long range trips. Winners: customizers specializing in touring
bikes, all touring accessory vendors.Prediction 4. The Fastest Growing Segment Of The Custom Motorcycle
Industry Will Be After-Market Parts For the Harley-Davidson Sportster
Model. New young bikers, male or female, discover it to become their
first motorcycle, Experienced middle age riders rediscover it as the machine who
gave them so much pleasure when they were younger. The Harley Sportster’s appeal
is almost universal among those who don’t need a touring bike. Easy to own, new
or used. Fun to ride with. Both balanced and responsive with outstanding
maneuverability. An urban brawler that young riders love for its dripping
attitude and that older bikers love for being reminiscent of the gritty dirt
tracks and drag strips of the 1950s. Whatever you want to do with it, the XL is
an easy starting point for customization. Make it look menacing, prepare it
ready for racing the streets or the strips, make it pretty for boulevard
cruising, its customization possibilities are endless. Combination of wheel
size, balloon tires, change of geometry with short front ends and generous rear
suspension via long shocks under a high tail section, it can be a Bobber, a Cafe
Racer, a cruiser and everything between. Recently, I was reminded by a
professional of the industry that during the last 5 years about half a million
Sportsters have changed hands, NOT including new bike sales!. Each change of
ownership implies a few new parts bought… There is an incredible potential of
new custom part offerings to please the Sportster riders, much more than for the
touring bikes market sef\gment. Winners: manufacturers of rear shocks, body
kits, fenders, gas tanks, front ends, clip bars, gauges, performance kits, etc.
Backyard builders and old school garages.Prediction 5. Bike Flipping Is Going To Be The New Rage For Garage
Builders And small Shops. Spend time in a Swap Meet, search eBay, your
local motorcycles trader magazine, barns, etc. Find a basket case, a rusted gem
or part of it for a couple of thousand dollars or less. Pick the ones easy to
restore or customize. All brands welcome.. The objective is NOT to put the bike
in its original manufacturing state, but to offer a buyer a fun bike to ride for
a very reasonable price (a 1st used car price). Time is the essence. Flip the
reborn bike as fast as possible. Create a small local riding club, meet new
friends, new buyers, new leads to new sleeping gems. Repeat. Make money. Start a
business. In 2013, Discovery may start a new TV show series based on the above
storyline. If it’s the case, expect an explosion of bike flippers all over the
country.Prediction 6. New Bagger Trend: A Leaner Bagger With No Bling, No Hallucinogen Paint And No Professional DJ Sound System Equipment. “Baby boomers switch from riding a Cruiser or Chopper to a Bagger. So, let’s do for them what we did on their bikes in the 90′s…” It’s the way many custom builders went overboard, fitting Baggers will all sort of unjustified panels and extensions (I have seen drawers!?!) with no other purpose that showing that you can fabricate steel or fiberglass, or to attach more bling and paint more murals than your competitors at the Baggers Bike Show. It’s the way, especially during these last 2 years, that beautiful Baggers turned into giant disproportionate monsters. The good thing is that such a spectacle for which was created a couple of Bagger magazines and bike shows, is going to end. The backlash is coming in the form of good custom builders taking their revenge in customizing Baggers to look better, not worse, and touring better than out of the factory. I predict that they will be chopped out, thinner, offering as much comfort and good riding position, but with superb flowing lines not interrupted by “easter eggs” or “back from the grave” paint jobs.
Prediction 7. The Death Of The Giant 30″ Bagger Front
Wheel. Size 23″, then 26″, then 30″. What’s next? Evidently, I embrace
the art of custom motorcycles, even some of its excesses because they may help
progress, but no more when in direct conflict with the main purpose of a bike,
riding safely. True that a Bagger appearance may be enhanced by a taller front
wheel. But when is tall too tall? Answer may be subjective on the aesthetic
point of view. But not on the safety issue when the Bagger can’t no more
function like a touring motorcycle, when the installation of a 30″ wheels
implies a modification of the frame structure (and if not well done, integrity)
In the past, excessive Chopper bike frame raking without respect of a safe trail
had its consequences. Then outrageous rear tire size (width) has shown many (who
should have known better) that a motorcycle is not and doesn’t work like a
monster truck. 21″ or 23″ size front wheel on a Bagger may remain. I doubt about
the 26″, 30″ and above (?), except if you just want to look at your piece of art
and maybe win plastic trophies over 30″ tall in bike shows.Prediction 8. Custom Bike Building Getting Less And Less Segmented
Between American & Metric Bikes. “Fusionary” Style Getting Bigger.
By economic necessity many Custom Builders who specialized in American
motorcycles have already crossed over, applying their skills to other foreign
& exotic brands. In addition, custom bike building is no more limited to
either building from the ground up or customizing factory bikes. Also for budget
reasons custom bike building now starts from cheap donor bikes of all origins
and age, the project being completed with parts belonging to different
motorcycle brands for a final appearance always fresh and unique. Mixing and
matching parts that never met before on the same motorcycle is probably the most
interesting development in the custom motorcycle industry. I call this style
“Fusionary” because it requires from the builder the ability to make stranger
parts fusion harmoniously (work together) and to be able to envision well in
advance what the aesthetic result will be. Thank the new or next generation of
Custom Builders for this trend born from necessity. “Fusionary” building is
going to expand and find acceptance from buyers.Prediction 9. Harley-Davidson US Dealer Network Will Shrink Again
By 10%. Indian Will Have A Separate Dealers Network. Nobody in the
motorcycle industry expects heavy cruiser sales to grow more than 3% per year
during the next 5 years. Dealers with more than one store have reassessed their
needs in terms of business sales per square footage and will continue to close
inefficient locations. Corporate Harley will continue to monitor its dealers
implantation and will turn down new openings in non-key markets and in key
markets with already strong dealers. Indian will have a separate dealer network
– not all Polaris dealers -although it will probably include Victory Motorcycle
dealers in key markets and the few remaining Indian dealers of the “Kings
Mountain” era.Prediction 10. Black Will Remain The Color Of Choice, But Only For
Accessories. Bright paint Colors Are Back With Shy Return Of Chrome
Parts. Too many all blacked out custom motorcycles. Hard metal flake
colors, Japanese style graphics and simple 2-tone paint jobs against black
anodized or powder coated parts will dominate the 2013 custom scene. Overused
retro grey, green and brown machine colors are out. Candy-apple colors and
gleaming chrome will be preferred by most female riders.