MLive.com
Sandwiched between two speakers armed with anti-gun analysis, Steve Dulan had his own ammunition.
For 10 minutes, the East Lansing lawyer and firearms instructor talked about Michigan’s concealed handgun law, the explosion in permits, and the evidence that license holders are more law-abiding than others.
He pointed to statistics on concealed permit holders the state issues each year.
“It’s a dramatic difference,” Dulan told a gun-rights symposium that Friday in February. “The quarter million of us adults in Michigan (with permits), we commit virtually no crime versus the general population.”
Today, he says he is disappointed an investigation by Booth newspapers found the reports he cited are inaccurate. But his conviction is unwavering: A lawfully armed society is safer, and those with permits are the most lawful of all.
“Even allowing for significant reporting errors, it’s still so dramatically different that it’s persuasive,” Dulan said.
When state lawmakers 10 years ago made it easier to carry a concealed gun, supporters said a better-armed society would deter crime. Opponents predicted the opposite.
A decade later, many critics concede fears of inordinate violence have not materialized.
However, two prominent criminologists — who often disagree on the topic of guns — agree on this: The law has not had a significant impact on crime rates.
“Looking at statistics, crime has not gone up and crime has not gone down as a result of passing these laws,” said Gary Kleck, an often-cited Florida State University professor generally skeptical of gun control.
Kleck’s studies suggest, however, there are some 2.5 million defensive uses of guns annually. He said 98 percent do not involve shootings.
“They’ll pull out a gun and threaten. They’ll allude (to having a weapon),” he said. “People rarely shoot the gun trying to kill somebody.”
Many defensive uses go unreported, he added. A permit holder might be reluctant to file a report fearing he or she unwittingly did something wrong. “There’s nothing to be gained from it,” Kleck said.
David McDowall, a professor at the University at Albany, State University of New York, has sparred with Kleck over various gun issues.
He agrees allowing law-abiding people to carry firearms “hasn’t had much impact on crime or on public life in general.”
But he said pro-gun forces overstate defensive uses. He put the number at probably 100,000 a year.
“There’s some people who claim it’s very frequent, but I think the best studies show it’s very infrequent,” he said.
Concealed handgun supporters often cite research by John Lott, a criminologist who has held positions at the universities of Maryland and Chicago. His book is titled “More Guns, Less Crime.” Others have spent considerable energy discrediting his analysis.
Violent crime in Michigan is falling, from 575 per 100,000 people in 1999 to 497 per 100,000 in 2009, according to FBI statistics. That’s a nearly 14 percent dip in the number of violent crimes per 100,000 people.
The crime rate is also down nationally, from 523 per 100,000 in 1999 to 429 in 2009, for a nearly 18 percent decline in the number of violent crimes per 100,000 people.
Michigan State University criminology professor Timothy Bynum said there are too many variables to say more guns equal less crime, or the opposite. “It’s a really big leap,” said Bynum, who directs the National Archive of Criminal Justice Data, an inter-university consortium at the University of Michigan.
U-M professor Edward Rothman, director of the Center for Statistical Consultation and Research, agreed to do an analysis for Booth newspapers on whether permit holders are more law abiding. The effort had to be abandoned, however, because the state’s reports were so incomplete.
But Kleck believes license holders are more law abiding, given the simple fact they must have a clean background check. If a license holder is arrested, it’s usually unrelated to a firearm, he added.
That’s not the perspective Dulan heard as he spoke that February afternoon between representatives from the Coalition to Stop Violence and the Brady Center to Prevent Gun Violence.
Dulan is an adjunct professor at Thomas M. Cooley Law School, a former infantry sergeant, a gun trainer and a concealed permit holder. He also is a board member of the Michigan Coalition for Responsible Gun Owners, whose efforts helped relax Michigan’s concealed weapon law 10 years ago this week.
The state reports he referenced details about 1,000 crimes committed by some 250,000 licensees the most recent year. That’s about 250 crimes per 100,000 license holders, he noted. For the entire population, the rate was about 3,300 crimes per 100,000 people, he said.
Even given state records are significantly flawed — 14 counties did not file that year and others under-reported convictions — Dulan said license holders are far more likely to toe the line. They undergo training, expense and are “so afraid of losing the license they tend to err on the side of caution,” he said.
“Bad guys, they get a gun and put it in their pocket.”
E-mail John Agar: jagar@grpress.com